Since the Rule 4 Draft was instituted in 1965, 43 of the 59 players selected with the 19th overall pick have gone on to make a major league debut, a 72% success rate. As of today, thirty have produced positive value for their team, with Roger Clemens the most successful of all of those players and Matt Barnes, Mike Foltynewicz, Bobby Grich, Shelby Miller, Alex Rios, Mike Scioscia, and Michael Wacha all making at least one All-Star Game. The Mets have had the 19 overall pick twice in their history, the first time in 2016 and the second in 2020.
Justin Dunn
Steve:
On draft day, I wasn’t really too much of a fan of Dunn. He didn’t have much of a track record, having been inserted into Boston College’s rotation a few weeks into their season, the physical profile didn’t really scream ‘starting pitcher’, and the repertoire- a fastball and slider combo- didn’t really scream ‘starting pitcher’ either. I remember seeing a few of his earliest starts with the Brooklyn Cyclones and coming away pretty unimpressed, as his vaunted fastball that supposedly hit 99 MPH while in Boston College’s bullpen was sitting 90-93 MPH, even occasionally dipping into the 80s. In the few years he spent in the Mets’ minor league system, he never really progressed much. He had a poor year in his first full year with the team, had a decent one in the second full year with the team, and then poof, gone, traded. His career obviously hasn’t gone to plan with the various injuries that limited his effectiveness on the mound or his ability to be on the mound, period. If healthy, I think he could’ve been a solid middle reliever.
See AlsoMinor league report: Red Sox position players will be well represented at All-Star Futures festivities, but what about the pitchers? - The Boston GlobeNew York Mets Prospects: 2024 Midseason Top 30 UpdateMets Minors Recap: Kodai Senga And Kade Morris Shut Out RenegadesMinors Weekly Report: Ryan Clifford Keeps Mashing in Binghamton - Metsmerized OnlineAt the time, I liked Alex Kiriloff and Blake Rutherford, who were selected by the Twins and Yankees at 15 and 18, respectively. Neither have really panned out, just like Dunn didn’t exactly pan out. For what it’s worth, as of right now, the 2016 MLB Draft didn’t end up being a particularly great class. Will Smith, selected at 32 by the Dodgers, has been the best player drafted in the first round, followed by Cal Quantrill and Gavin Lux. Of the 41 total first rounders, 36 made the majors, 20 produced positive value, but only six have thus far produced more than 5 WAR (the aforementioned three in addition to Braxton Garrett, Cole Ragans, and Dylan Carlson).
Lukas:
A much younger, very foolish Lukas was a big fan of the Justin Dunn selection at 19 in the 2016 draft. Oh, he had been holding out hope for Blake Rutherford, who seemed to be floating down the board until the Yankees snagged him one spot ahead of the Mets, but Dunn seemed a very nice consolation prize. A recent SP convert with an electric fastball and clear upside given his relative lack of experience was a tantalizing get, and an impressive strikeout of fellow first round pick Zack Collins in the college World Series (the draft used to take place before the end of the college season, remember) cemented that opinion.
Nearly ten years older and perhaps incrementally wiser, the reasons for skepticism around this pick seem much more clear. Dunn never held his velocity into starts and his fastball didn’t do much aside from go fast. That worked well against college hitters, but the shape and lack of command quickly proved problematic. So to did his unrefined secondary pitches, which occasionally flashed but were more often middling offerings. On some level, these were all very predictable flaws of the profile, and were I evaluating this player in the 2024 draft I’d be much more wary of drafting a pure arm-strength play attached to a diminutive frame with a limited track record of starting.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Steve:
I didn’t really have any strong feelings about anybody in the 2020 MLB Draft given the craziness that was going on in the world and the lack of high school and college baseball outside of a brief few weeks in February. When Pete Crow-Armstrong was selected, I was excited because he was Thomas’ draft follow in From Complex To Queen’s inaugural Way-Too-Early Draft Special. In retrospect, I definitely would have preferred Garrett Mitchell, who was selected right after PCA, but what can you do?
His time with us was short- there was no Minor League Baseball in 2020, and in 2021, he only got into 6 games before hurting himself and being put on the injured list and subsequently being traded to the Cubs at the trade deadline later in the year. With the Cubs, he would immediately go on to become one of the best prospects in all of baseball, but I personally don’t think he would’ve gone down that path if he stayed in the organization; I don’t have faith that the Mets would have made the specific changes to his stance and swing that the Cubs did, but it’s a moot question regardless.
The 2020 draft was a weird one for obvious reasons, but with PCA traded to the Cubs, J.T. Ginn traded to Oakland, Isaiah Greene traded to Cleveland, Anthony Walters released after just a few months, and Matthew Dyer traded to Tampa Bay, let’s hope that Eric Orze is able to perform better going forward and salvage the Mets’ draft class just a little bit.
Lukas:
PCA (who I will always associate with the dimensionality reduction method of the same name) was not a pick I was particularly fond of. Though he had 1.1 buzz 12-18 months prior to the 2020 draft, he tumbled down the board for good reason, with serious concerns about his realistic offensive upside dampening interest. PCA struck me as someone who relied heavily on athleticism but lacked the impact to portend a high-end outcome, and high school players without top-of-the-scale upside are a demographic I’ve always disliked (going all the way back to Gavin Cecchini). While PCA’s prospect stock did peak fairly high during his time in the minors, these concerns around his bat have largely been born out in the upper minors and major leagues.
The name I’d have preferred at the time was Garrett Mitchell, a college prospect with a lot of the same skills (high-end defense and speed), some of the same questions about ultimate offensive impact, but likely a higher power projection. The Brewers scooped Mitchell up at pick 20 and he’s largely looked like the better selection, reaching the majors more quickly and proving to be more productive. The age difference is important to note here and PCA could still make up the gap down the road, but this is one retrospective moment where I feel I was right at the time.